Here is what we know about Hurricane Arthur and the outlook for Independence Day and beyond. There is a 100-percent probability of heavy rain from an unrelated system until about sunset Friday. Hurricane Arthur is expected to pass to the east of Montauk Point, close enough that near-tropical storm-force wind gusts are expected for the region late Friday.
Rain and a chance of lightning will end after dark Friday, but not before as much as three inches could fall. The National Weather Service has issued warnings of flooding in low-lying areas and roadways.
Ocean swells are forecast to reach 14 feet after midnight. Dangerous conditions will last into Saturday, with seas diminishing to five to eight feet in the afternoon. The weather will rapidly improve on Saturday, as Arthur and the previous day's low-pressure system move away to the east and north.
A great look at the progess of todays's rainstorms can be found at the NOAA's Upton weather data site: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX As of 7 a.m. Friday, light showers were affecting portions of the East End, with a band of heavier storms looming over Westchester County and northern New Jersey. (Most fronts in the Northeast move from west to east.)
Updates from the National Hurricane Center on Arthur's whereabouts can be seen at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc.