Forecast: Hurricane Jose Off Montauk on Wednesday

The center of Hurricane Jose is expected to be off Montauk by Wednesday, though its path could change substantially over the coming days. National Hurricane Center

In the latest forecast, Hurricane Jose could affect the Northeast coast on Tuesday, coming perilously close to Montauk and the Hamptons, as well and Nantucket by Wednesday morning.

The National Hurricane Center said that the center of the Category 1 storm would pass well east of North Carolina early next week with tropical storm-force winds.

"Farther north along the U.S. East Coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location," David Zelinsky, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said in forecast discussion issued on early Saturday morning.

Hurricane Jose path models show it turning to the north on Saturday and growing larger. Large ocean swells from the storm were already affecting eastern Long Island with higher waves affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast U.S. Dangerous surf conditions are expected along the mid-Atlantic, Long Island, and New England coast over the next few days.

The hurricane center said that people from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend.

Mr. Zelinsky said that Hurricane Jose's actual path could vary from the current predictions by as much as 175 miles on Wednesday. With the storm expected to be close to eastern Long Island by that point, just how much wind and rain can be expected is difficult to pin down. The National Weather Service expects tropical storm conditions in Montauk beginning late Tuesday.

Hurricane Jose is not expected to become a substantially more powerful storm, with sustained winds topping out at 85 miles per hour. Hurricane Irma, which devastated parts of the Caribbean and Florida last week, had winds in excess of 155 miles per hour and higher gusts.

Hurricane Bob, which skirted eastern Long Island in August 1991, had maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, making it a Category 2 storm.

Tropical storm conditions are expected on Long Island on Wednesday, but the likelihood of a direct hit from the Category 1 Hurricane Jose remains low, the National Hurricane Center said in a Saturday forecast discussion.
 

Hurricane Jose in a NASA satellite image from Friday that showed signs the storm was becoming better organized.NASA/NOAA GOES Project