Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, the presumptive Democratic nominee to represent New York’s recently redrawn First Congressional District, has released results of a poll that shows her in a neck-and-neck race with her potential Republican opponent in the Nov. 8 midterm election.
The poll, conducted by the GBAO research and consulting firm, “shows an extremely competitive general election contest” to represent the district, according to a memo from the firm, which was issued by Ms. Fleming’s campaign. The race “starts as a statistical dead heat,” though Ms. Fleming gained a few points as voters learned more about the candidates.
The redrawn district split evenly between President Biden and then-President Trump in the 2020 election. It went for Mr. Trump by four percentage points within its previous boundaries. Representative Lee Zeldin, who won four consecutive races in the district, is the Republican Party’s nominee for governor of New York.
GBAO surveyed 500 likely 2022 voters in the district between July 21 and July 25 using live interviewers to reach voters on mobile phones and landlines. A random sample was drawn from a voter file and weighted to reflect a likely general election voter electorate.
All questions were sampled with half of voters hearing and seeing Ms. Fleming versus Nick LaLota, one candidate for the Republican Party’s nomination, and the other half hearing and seeing Ms. Fleming versus Michelle Bond, another candidate. The numbers in the materials issued by Ms. Fleming’s campaign average the two matchups.
Ms. Fleming is within the margin of error of her opponents, starting with 45 percent in the poll versus her Republican opponents’ 48 percent, according to GBAO’s memo. Seven percent of voters were undecided.
But after hearing positive and negative messages on the Republican candidates and Ms. Fleming, Ms. Fleming gained a lead of 3 percent, according to GBAO. “Her opponents’ opposition to abortion is out of step with NY-01 voters,” the memo states. “Messaging on her potential Republican opponents’ respective stances on abortion raises serious doubts” for 57 percent of voters, the memo concludes.
Ms. Fleming is running unopposed in the Aug. 23 primary election. Mr. LaLota, Ms. Bond, and Anthony Figliola are competing for the Republican nomination.
