A little over a week out from a decisive national election, both the Democratic and Republican Parties are examining what the results say about where the country stands. Looking over the preliminary data from the New York State and Suffolk County Boards of Elections, as well as the archived data from past elections, one can see how Suffolk County has changed and what trends have emerged.
Suffolk County re-elected Republican Representative Nick LaLota for a second term, marking the 10th congressional election in a row where a Republican will hold the seat in the First District. Additionally the county has broken solidly for President-elect Donald Trump for the third time in row, this time with the largest margin of the three elections he has run in.
According to unofficial results, Mr. LaLota won 55.7 percent of the vote in the First Congressional District, while his opponent, John Avlon, got 44.2 percent. That translates to 217,461 votes for Mr. LaLota and 172,700 votes for Mr. Avlon. The 11-percent margin that Mr. LaLota held was also consistent with the margin in the presidential election, Mr. Trump and his running mate Senator J.D. Vance took 55.01 percent of the vote, with 402,924 votes, while Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz took 44.16 percent, with 323,473.
“I know percentage-wise I believe President Trump won Suffolk County by the highest percentage of any county in New York State,” said Manny Vilar, chairman of the East Hampton Town Republican Committee. “Clearly, this was a campaign of two choices . . . President Trump exceeded his prior vote totals, capturing an overwhelming majority of the Electoral College as well as the popular vote.”
Notably, Republican congressional candidates have won their elections by around an 11-percent margin in the past three elections. In 2022, Mr. LaLota ran for the first time, defeating Democratic candidate Bridget Fleming with 55.5 percent of the vote to her 44.5 percent, or 177,040 votes to 141,907. Then going back to 2020, then-incumbent Representative Lee Zeldin defeated Nancy Goroff with 55.5 percent of the vote to Ms. Goroff’s 45.1, or 205,715 votes to 169,294 votes.
Although the Democratic candidate again lost the congressional race, Anna Skrenta, chairwoman of the East Hampton Town Democratic Committee, is more focused on local turnout.
“Harris won East Hampton by more than 30 points; 66 percent vs. 34 percent despite losing Suffolk County by almost 11 percentage points,” she said in a statement over text. “Similarly John Avlon won E.H. 67 percent vs. 33 percent despite losing in Suffolk by 11 percentage points. Avlon’s winning margin in E.H. was the highest across any of the other towns in CD1. Ian Calder-Piedmonte won with 69 percent of the vote.”
This trend is particularly interesting, as the vote totals were inconsistent in every election. Even in 2014, when Mr. Zeldin won the seat for the first time, besting the incumbent, Tim Bishop, he won by 9 percent: 54.43 to 45.57. But the vote total was much lower, with Mr. Zeldin winning with only 94,035 votes to Mr. Bishop’s 78,722.
Mr. Vilar sees New York State as a state of “blue dots,” with cities accounting for the state’s Democratic majority. Given how both Mr. Trump and Mr. LaLota performed last week, he sees the opportunity for growth across those blue-dot areas.
“When you look at those numbers,” Mr. Vilar said, “as we perform better and better in the urban areas, we already have upstate New York, we have the suburban areas; it’s just a matter of educating and showing our residents in New York City, in these cities, that there is an alternative.”
With the exception of the most recent election, vote totals have been steadily rising since the presidential election in 2012. That year saw 586,210 voters, breaking 51.25 percent (304,079 votes) for President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden and 47.55 percent (282,131 votes) for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.
Turnout increased to 654,521 in 2016, the first time Mr. Trump won the county, with 350,570 voters (51.77 percent) breaking for him and then-Governor Mike Pence, and 303,951 votes, 44.89 percent, breaking for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Tim Kaine.
This hit a fever pitch in the 2020 election, one that is a bit of an outlier because of the Covid-19 pandemic, when 762,274 people voted in Suffolk County. Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence won the county by only 232 votes taking 49.40 percent, or 381,253 votes. Then-Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris won 49.37 percent, or 381,021 votes.
The growth of voter turnout is the most fascinating trend in the board of elections data. In 2024 Mr. Avlon received the most votes a Democratic congressional candidate has received in those data stretching back to 2002. He received over 3,000 more votes than Ms. Goroff in 2020, over 30,000 more than Ms. Fleming, and over 90,000 more than Mr. Bishop back in 2014.
Mr. LaLota similarly received the most votes any Republican congressional candidate has ever received within the periods. He outpaced himself by over 40,000 from his first run in 2022, received over 11,000 more votes than Mr. Zeldin in 2020, and received over 120,000 more votes than Mr. Zeldin did in his first win in 2014.
“Although the East End of Long Island remains solidly blue, Long Island continues to trend red,” Ms. Skrenta said. “It is clear that the Democratic Party is at a crossroads on the national, state, and local level and the coming days and years will need to be navigated with agility and self-awareness.” She also added that “it is notable that although Trump won Suffolk County with 55 percent of the vote, the Equal Rights Amendment passed in Suffolk with 54 percent of the vote.”
With Reporting by Christine Sampson
