Dire Climate Predictions

The metropolitan New York region will experience a broad-based acceleration of climate change in the coming decades, marked by coastal flooding, heat waves, and extreme precipitation, according to panelists at a discussion held at the East Hampton Library on Saturday. A corresponding acceleration in adaptation and mitigation measures, the audience was told, is critically important.

“Meeting Climate Change Challenges: A Coastal Community Perspective” was the second event in the new Tom Twomey Series, launched to honor the late chairman of the library’s board of managers.

Daniel Bader, a research analyst at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research, delivered dire predictions for the future, should current trends continue. As measured at the Battery in Lower Manhattan, a sea-level rise of one foot has occured since 1900, he said, greater than the global average. The rate across Long Island is comparable, he said. This is due both to the warming of the oceans and, recently, the loss of land-based ice fromAntarctica and Greenland.

“What’s driving our science?” he asked. The answer: higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, caused by the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas. “We know how the planet systems work,” he said, likening the effect of the 90 million tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere daily to putting a heavy blanket over the earth.

By 2080, he said, an annual temperature increase of up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit is possible, along with a sea-level rise of almost six feet. A “one in 100-year storm” as we now know it, he said, may occur 10 to 15 times as often, along with an increase in the incidence of heavy rainfalls. “We face an extreme risk as a coastal community,” Mr. Bader said. “These are staggering numbers. They justify a response.”

Gordian Raacke, executive director of the East Hampton advocacy group Renewable Energy Long Island, gave a powerful presentation that included both ominous predictions and a blueprint for mitigation. In order to avert catastrophic warming, he said, scientists assert that we must reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to no more than 350 parts per million; it is at present around 400. “The current business model that we have,” he said, “is unsustainable.”

Mr. Raacke, who is a member of the town’s energy sustainability committee, praised Supervisor Larry Cantwell, who was in attendance, and the town board for adopting the goal of meeting its energy consumption through renewable sources. He also cited the state’s Executive Order No. 24, which calls for an 80-percent reduction, from 1990 levels, in greenhouse gas emissions from all sources by 2050. “It’s a tall order,” he said. “Everybody here has a lot to do with it.”

But the tools to make a complete transition to renewable energy are available today, he said. Putting solar panels on every house for which they are suitable is advisable — the number of installed solar electric systems in the town, approximately 400 at the end of 2014, is expected to double this year — as is the creation of utility-scale solar installations. Offshore wind farms, energy-efficient buildings and appliances, and the purchase of green energy from other parts of Long Island would also further the town’s goals, Mr. Raacke said.

In the transportation sector, an electric-vehicle charging station at Town Hall is a positive step, he said, but better mass-transit systems and a more bicycle and pedestrian-friendly infrastructure are advisable. “And we need to eat locally produced food,” he said, noting the long distance most food travels before reaching consumers.

“Today we are at a crossroads,” Mr. Raacke said. “We have a choice between sticking with the old business model that doesn’t work, or choosing a clean energy future.” The town board, he said, “has shown tremendous leadership to take the right fork.” He urged the community to “take pride and ownership in developing solutions to solve this problem. . . . It will take each and every one of us to make it happen.”