The Mast-Head: Morning Prognosis
“Enjoy the good part of global warming!” someone in the morning crew at the coffee shop said this week.
The temperature outside was already in the low 70s, going up to nearly 80, David Falkowski said from his usual seat in Java Nation’s sole upholstered chair. But, he said, watch out for February, when the South Fork stands a fair chance of multiple heavy snowfalls of the sort that do not melt away before the next one hits.
Weather is not climate, long-term forecasters say. That means this week’s warm spell is not tied to global warming. David Falkowski’s hypothetical snowstorms are, however. Climate scientists predict that as the atmosphere warms, greater levels of moisture enter the air, leading to more precipitation, even though persistent snow cover in North America has decreased since the 1930s.
Like politics, global warming or climate change is not a subject I really want to talk about during my morning stop after dropping Ellis off for first grade and before I arrive at work at The Star. You never know if one of the regulars might turn out to be a climate-denier and your heretofore pleasant relations soured by the topic. Next thing you know it will be the Twin Towers conspiracy or Donald Trump, and you’ll have to get your coffee to go.
One of the telling comments about climate change that has stuck with me came from Scott Mandia, a researcher at Stony Brook University who described the effect of sea level rise on the inundation damage from coastal storms. With rising waters, storms ride in that much higher and even the little ones do considerable damage.
Think of the water like a basketball floor, he told me — pretty soon guys like me will be able to dunk.
Maybe one of these mornings I will share this with the Java Nation crew — when I have a good hour to kill to see where the conversation goes from there.