The Mast-Head: Some Hurricane History

September brings with it clear skies, open roads, a sense of calm, and peak hurricane season. This year’s official forecast is for a moderately active Atlantic during the period, but records going back to 1851 show that for Long Island, as well as the rest of the coastal United States, from Texas to Maine, now is the time to keep a weather eye out, so to speak.

All in all, history tells a mixed tale for Long Island. Of the 96 major hurricanes that struck during the 159 years between 1851 and 2010, which the National Hurricane Center studied, just 5 hit here directly. However, when adjusted for inflation and other factors, the hurricane center found that some of the costliest ones did pass over. These included the unnamed 1938 Hurricane, which ranked sixth on the most-expensive list, and Carol in 1954, at number 19.

Number one was a 1926 storm that struck South Florida and Alabama and did an estimated $164 billion in damage in 2010 dollars. Number two was Katrina in 2005, with an adjusted cost of $113 billion. Sandy, which brought Long Island to a standstill for at least a week in 2012 but was only a tropical storm with a whole lot of surge associated with it, ran up a relatively modest $65 billion tab.

One of the points the hurricane center made in its report (which a friend pointed out the other day) was that because of never-ending building and expansion of existing structures along the shore, even minor hurricanes will rack up huge bills. The authors pointed out that all three of the 2008 hurricanes that made landfall ended up on the top-30 list for cost despite none of them ranking as major events bymeteorological standards.

“Large property losses are inevitable in the absence of a significant change of attitude, policy, or laws governing building practices [codes and location] near the ocean,” the report says. And that’s setting aside the increased risk presented by sea level rise. The South Fork may get a pass this year, and maybe next year, but we can expect one one of these days. Don’t say the National Hurricane Center didn’t tell you so.