South Fork Considers Cancer: East End Statistics 'Won't Stand Up'

The National Cancer Institute has been unable to draw any firm conclusions in its review of a breast cancer study that showed "significantly" higher rates on the East End than the rest of Suffolk.

Although agreeing that Long Island has a high incidence of breast cancer, the institute's director, Dr. Richard Klausner, said he did not believe the statistical evidence was sufficient to justify the study's conclusions.

The study Dr. Klausner analyzed was done under the direction of Dr. Roger Grimson of the Department of Preventive Medicine at the State University at Stony Brook. Dr. Grimson is chairman of the Environmental Task Force on Brookhaven National Laboratory set up by Suffolk County. His study, released in January, interpreted state data for the North and South Forks.

Statistics

The Grimson study concluded that there were 129 cases of breast cancer for every 100,000 women on the East End, compared to a rate of 110 per 100,000 for all of Suffolk County and 117 per 100,000 in Nassau County. The average throughout New York State is 102.

United States Representative Michael P. Forbes said this week that, after seeing Dr. Grimson's findings, he was so "shocked" that he had asked for an "independent analysis" by the National Cancer Institute and the Long Island Breast Cancer Study Project to "ascertain its validity."

Dr. Iris Obrams, director of the Long Island project, reviewed the Grimson study before sending it to the National Cancer Institute, which funds her project. Dr. Obrams's review was not made public.

Limited Base

In a letter Mr. Forbes received last Thursday, Dr. Klausner said the Grimson data were based on "a relatively small study in terms of the overall numbers, and with any small sample size there are many limitations about how one interprets the data."

He called the study "well designed in concept," but, given its limited statistical base, said it would not "stand up to the rigors of statistical analysis that are universally accepted across the scientific community."

For example, he wrote, "if the cases in the cluster have occurred due to different causes, then epidemiological investigations will be negative. Most clusters of diseases that are investigated are in fact of this type - no common cause can be found."

Promise Made

Dr. Klausner promised Mr. Forbes that the institute would continue to monitor closely any study of "changes in breast cancer rates on Long Island, particularly eastern Long Island."

The Grimson study was followed by a separate analysis of the same state data by the County Health Services Department.

It showed that breast cancer rates were especially high on the South Fork and in the Riverhead area for women 54 and under. That analysis, distributed in mid-February, has caused widespread concern. It has not been reviewed by the National Cancer Institute, however.