Watch Out for El Nino

It has usually been predictable that winter weather will arrive on the South Fork at around the end of January. This year, like last, saw a relatively benign December and first three weeks of January. Then, on Jan. 22 and 23, snow arrived in a storm that set records as nearby as La Guardia Airport. In terms of accumulation, the East End was spared its own new record, though the beaches took a pounding. Monday’s storm this week hit the shoreline hard again, setting up dangerous conditions in some places, with more than a month left in the usual winter northeaster season.

Forecasters say that because of an unusually strong El Nino above-average precipitation is likely along the Eastern Seaboard for the rest of the year. Research cited by the National Weather Service shows an increase in coastal storms in El Nino years, with high winds, lots of snow, and the potential for serious erosion.

The business about the groundhog not seeing its shadow notwithstanding, indications are that we are in for more heavy weather in the weeks to come. The 2015-16 El Nino is on track to remain one of the strongest ever observed. Batten your hatches, everyone.