Representative Nick LaLota is in a tough spot: trying to present himself as a moderate while not appearing so cozy with Democrats that he risks alienating his conservative District 1 base. He might have lost a few voters when he signed on to a September pledge to respect the results no matter who wins as president; as someone who came to the job of congressman after time as a Suffolk election commissioner, it would have been a joke if he had not.
The G.O.P. has held this seat in Congress ever since redistricting in 2012 gave Republicans in the district an edge. A glaring example of Mr. LaLota's dilemma came after The New York Times reported that Donald Trump's former chief of staff Gen. John Kelly recalled Trump praising Adolf Hitler. Asked directly for a response, Mr. LaLota deflected by trying to cast doubt on The Times.
Then, after a Trump surrogate joked reprehensibly about Puerto Rico specifically and Latinos in general, the congressman kept his lips zipped. Latinos are the second largest part of the population in the First District, and his silence could hurt his chances.
John Avlon, formerly of The Daily Beast and CNN, is within arm's length of a win, even though most polls still rate the district as likely Republican. As a Democratic moderate, he just might pull off a win — if the party has a strong turnout. It seems a toss-up, considering that Mr. Trump won in the district by only four points.
Electing Mr. Avlon is crucial if national Democrats are going to be able to take control of the House of Representative. If Mr. Trump returns to the White House, a Democratic House could be the only curb on his most nightmarish agenda. If Kamala Harris gets it done, then she will need the House to counterbalance a potentially Republican Senate and hyperconservative Supreme Court. A vote for John Avlon is not just good for the district, it could be pivotal on a national scale as well.