Social distancing has appeared to slow the transmission of Covid-19, but the number of new cases remains alarmingly high.
After seeing a very steep rise in the daily number of new virus cases at the beginning of April, Suffolk County appears to be experiencing some relief. The curve dropped after 10 straight days with 1,000 or more new cases identified, and may now be leveling off at about the rate observed at the end of March. This represents a very high number of people confirmed with the virus, but it may have marked the end of cataclysmic increases. While this appears to be a degree of success for the aggressive measures to combat the spread, the number is just the confirmed cases of Covid-19; many more people with the virus or recovered from it are not among the official count.
The public risks becoming inured to all this, but one measure should stand out. New York State had its first death linked to the virus one month ago this week; there are now more than 10,000. There remains a very high risk that the virus numbers will spike again. Confirmed cases do not reflect the undoubtedly many people who are asymptomatic or who have the virus but have not been obviously laid low. There is no doubt that significantly more people on the East End have had Covid-19 than are in the official counts.
There is growing suspicion among doctors that a wave of the virus was sickening people here as early as January. A number who initially were told they had a bad flu are now thought to actually have had surprisingly life-threatening symptoms brought on by Covid-19. At least several East Hampton residents are now fully recovered from what in retrospect they believe was the virus as well; some are enrolling in convalescent plasma studies to help others survive.
Strict mitigation measures are believed to be behind the slowing rate of infection. Wearing masks and gloves in public and limiting exposure in places where people get close to one another, such as supermarkets and workplaces, seem to have paid off. Yet there are troubling signs. Despite orders to limit certain trades to essential operations, there is pressure here to carry on in defiance. The line between allowed property maintenance and not-permitted niceties is blurry and not entirely observed.
This week there were plenty of pool-service company vehicles on South Fork roads, along with those of landscapers obviously engaged in more than upkeep mowing. Especially dangerous are two or three men sitting closely together in truck cabs without visible personal protection, such as masks. Others can be seen engaged in aesthetic improvements not allowed under an executive order from Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.
While most home construction seems to have stopped, the halt is far from absolute. At some job sites, builders and subcontractors make efforts to hide their vehicles in order to keep working but avoid notice. Others carry on as if nothing has changed. The executive order allows only for work to secure a structure to protect it from the elements or collapse, with the exception that craftspeople working alone may carry on — for example, an owner and operator of a locksmith business closing up a building when no one else is there. These sensible rules would not seem to allow house painting or drywall workers to continue as observed in some cases. In turn, delis and food markets preparing meals for tradespeople could also be sites for the potential transmission of the virus.
Self-regulation by these few outliers obviously has failed, putting their employees and others at an unacceptable risk. Lives are in the balance if regulation falters.
Many in the Long Island labor work force are among the region's most vulnerable population, ineligible for unemployment payments, for example, or in fear of deportation; some believe they have no choice but to show up if the boss tells them to. The places where many live are excessively crowded, with shared bathrooms and up to a dozen or more adults crammed into houses built for small families. As a consequence, the rate of virus transmission may be rising among this population segment while falling in others. And, with many workers in this highly mobile population returning to sleep in other communities, the East End's viral exposure could, in turn, spread elsewhere on the Island.
Statewide, statistics show an alarming fatality rise among Hispanics and black New Yorkers, while people classified as "white" die of Covid-19-related causes at a far lower rate. This has been ascribed to common underlying health conditions, but it also is a warning that police and local officials must be unrelenting in enforcing workplace bans to protect people already at a statistically higher risk of death.
Ignoring the obvious should not be tolerated. Now is not the time for business as usual, nor for looking the other way. Protection must be afforded all New Yorkers, regardless of class, background, or immigration status.