Pumped Up For Trump
If you are a Bernie Sanders supporter on the East End, it is not hard to find others who “Feel the Bern.” Supporters have watched debates, made phone calls, signed petitions, and carpooled to “get out the vote” events. Those who support Donald J. Trump here have not made similar public efforts, but they are out there. As for Hillary Clinton, all is quiet as local supporters point to the number of delegates she can count on for the national convention.
Joe Bloecker of Montauk, a Republican and former East Hampton Town trustee, said Mr. Trump’s fans were “waiting and watching,” given that he is self-funding his campaign and that the New York State presidential primary is still a month and a half off.
Describing a recent lunch at Shippy’s Pumpernickels Restaurant East in Southampton, Mr. Bloecker said it showed Trump supporters were more prevalent here than might appear. All eight people at the bar at the lunch were for Trump, he said. “What gets more local than a Tuesday at Shippy’s?”
Anecdotal evidence is about as reliable as can be found at the moment. The New York Republican primary, on April 19, is one of the last 16 in the country, and there has been very little polling.
According to the website RealClearPolitics, there have been only two polls surveying the presidential primary in New York State so far. Quinnipiac University conducted the first, polling from June 28 to July 1, 2015, and Siena University Research Institute conducted the second, from Jan. 31 to Feb. 3 this year. The Siena poll showed Mr. Trump leading with 34 percent of the sample while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio came in second, tying at 16 percent. This poll was conducted with only one state, Iowa, accounted for and before Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Carly Fiorina dropped out of the race.
A more recent Siena/Newsday poll, from Feb. 14 through 18 and Feb. 21 through 22, showed Mr. Trump the clear leader among Long Island Republicans with 49 percent of those sampled.
As for the general election, 41 percent of those polled said they would vote for Mr. Trump while 38 said they would pick Hillary Clinton. This resulted in a statistical tie because the survey had a sampling error of plus-or-minus 3.1 points and 20 percent of those polled said they would not pick either candidate.
While the data from the polls show a decisive lead by Mr. Trump over other Republicans, not all Republicans on the East End think he is the right choice. Beatrice Derrico of Sag Harbor, who frequently expresses political opinions in letters to the editor, is unhappy with the Republican choices, especially with the frontrunner, who she said has “no substance. He repeats himself constantly and has added no answers.”
After dismissing Mr. Rubio for being “a true liar” and Mr. Cruz for doing “some underhanded stuff,” Mrs. Derrico is sticking to her “choice from day one” — Ben Carson.
Mr. Bloecker had kinder words for Mr. Trump and thinks he will do well here. Mr. Trump “has a heart” and likes to help out the community, Mr. Bloecker said. As evidence, he recalled a 1996 event in Amagansett for which Mr. Trump traveled from New York City. Mr. Bloecker said Mr. Trump attended the Second Annual Dishes Summer Beach Games, at which supermodels played volleyball on Atlantic Avenue Beach to raise money for pediatric AIDS research.