I am deeply concerned about the tragic war in Ukraine. I have visited Kyiv and Kharkiv to give economic advice on civilianizing airports. My Rotterdam-born mother told me many stories about World War II, and I am writing a book about the Dutch Resistance. Many aspects of Russia’s war on Ukraine are eerily similar to Hitler’s invasion of Holland in May 1940. But the differences matter.
In mid-1939, bent on war, Hitler had publicly committed his country to the neutrality of the Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg) and Switzerland. Holland had been neutral in World War I. The invasion of Holland on May 10, 1940, by Hitler’s Wehrmacht was therefore a shock to the Dutch. Hitler had lied. Holland had prepared for scarcity by stockpiling food, but was not expecting a war — certainly not a war under Hitler’s rules, which involved pre-emptively slaughtering civilians and destroying their homes, schools, and hospitals. The destruction was not just a byproduct of war. It was Hitler’s objective.
The invasion of Ukraine entailed many similar lies and broken promises. In December 1991, more than 90 percent of the Ukrainian electorate voted for its independence. The leaders of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine dissolved the Soviet Union and formed the Commonwealth of Independent States. Ukraine held about one-third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to destroy the weapons and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The Russians publicly promised Ukraine that in return for giving up its nuclear weapons Russia would forever respect its sovereignty. So much for that.
The conscripts who were shipped off to fight in Ukraine were lied to about where they were going. Is it any surprise that their morale is low?
Most people remember Rotterdam, but not The Hague, Hitler’s initial unprovoked attack on the country. Hitler wanted to capture Queen Wilhelmina and the Dutch government. The Luftwaffe chief, Hermann Goring, sent 670 transport and fighter planes to drop 9,000 parachutists on The Hague and capture the government. This attack was meant to be a blitzkrieg, quick and conclusive, so that Hitler’s Panzer tanks could swiftly move on Belgium and France. But only 3,000 German troops were actually dropped, because the ground was too muddy for planes that had landed to take off again to ferry more paratroopers. The parachutists landed over a larger area than planned. Many were killed and most of those remaining were captured. Also, Dutch antiaircraft fire destroyed a hundred of the Luftwaffe’s Heinkel HE 111 bombers and transports. The attack was a failure.
Similarly, Putin’s initial unprovoked attack on Kyiv is a failure. His 40-mile convoy is stuck, like Persians on their path to Thermopylae, as a much smaller defending army holds them off. The combination of lack of fuel for the trucks, lack of food for the army, and muddy conditions — like the mud that stopped Hitler’s planes — have frozen the Russian army in place. A disaster.
By May 14, Hitler and Goring were boiling with fury at their planes being stranded in Holland and the implications for their advance on Belgium. They issued an ultimatum demanding immediate Dutch surrender, or else Rotterdam would be bombed to the ground. They characteristically added that if Rotterdam’s destruction wasn’t sufficiently convincing, Goring’s planes were ready to destroy Utrecht and Amsterdam. The Dutch did surrender before the deadline, but word never got to the Luftwaffe bomber pilots on their way to Rotterdam. The city was destroyed. The bombing leveled 24,000 homes, 21 churches, 70 schools, and four hospitals. The bombers killed 814 people and created 80,000 homeless. The war in the Netherlands killed more Dutch civilians (2,200) than military (2,100).
Queen Wilhelmina and her cabinet escaped to England on May 13 with the help of two British Navy frigates. The queen set up residence in London and won praise for her support of the Dutch Resistance through radio broadcasts and the commitment of funds, payable after the war. The Dutch people stayed, except for Jews who were mostly deported. The Dutch were leaderless and unsure how the occupation would change their lives. As a member of the Resistance said: “We felt like the bees of a bee colony deprived not only of their queen bee, but also of their hive. The government had gone, the military were in captivity, Parliament suspended, newspapers restricted.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by contrast, is still in Kyiv. He is an extraordinarily charismatic spokesman for his country. He is proving to be an extremely strong leader, attracting attention, admiration, and sympathy wherever there is a free press. He has rallied his country far beyond expectations. Not surprisingly, Putin has tried to have him killed. Putin, at the same time, has looked and sounded as if he is ready to destroy the world if he cannot have his way.
Unlike the Netherlands, from which few were able to leave, Ukraine has already seen the departure of one and a half million women and children for neighbors to the west. The total number of Ukrainian refugees may be five million. The advantage of this for Ukraine is that the men are totally focused on resistance and are not distracted by worries about their families.
The Dutch had no collective memories of a foreign occupier. Belgians had been occupied in World War I and knew what occupation meant and what resistance would require. So Belgium soon had 100,000 active fighters with weapons. In Holland, with almost an identical population (eight million), the number in the Resistance prior to September 1944 was only one-fourth as large and fewer were armed. Some Dutch business owners and most Jewish families in Holland knew immediately what the occupation meant. Some of them had left Germany in a panic, to find safety in Holland. One hundred and twenty-eight of them committed suicide on hearing the news.
The Ukrainians know the Russians. They remember the promises Russia made when the Ukrainians voted for independence and gave up their nuclear weapons. They saw what happened in Crimea. They do not want to be back under the Russian boot. They have a determined army and they are defending, not attacking.
Hitler in May 1940 had 1.5 million well-trained troops invading Holland. His air force under Goring was the most fearsome in the world, with 4,000 modern planes. At its peak, the German army had 17.9 million troops. The German propaganda machine under Goebbels was effective beyond Germany, although it failed to win over the Dutch people. The German economy was the largest in Europe, and with Austria it was equal to the Soviet Union.
Ukraine’s army is smaller than the army facing the country now from Russia, but it lacks air power. On the other hand, the Soviet Union’s Red Army showed its strength because it was defending its own territory. The Ukrainians are defending their country against an attacker. The Ukrainian economy today is only one-tenth the size of Russia’s. But the United States’ economy is more than 10 times as large as Russia’s, and several European countries have a larger G.D.P. than Russia’s. The NATO forces arrayed against Putin are united and working together. He has lost the propaganda war except, for the time being, in his own country. Economic sanctions are effective and working, with a Depression-size decline in Russian G.D.P. projected by Wall Street analysts.
Hitler had the element of surprise. His army and his air force were formidable by any standard. He had a strong cadre of military brass, and a thorough, trained, and huge professional army.
Putin’s army is largely composed of young conscripts with one year’s training. The desperate madness of Putin’s taking over a nuclear power plant and cutting off communication with the outside world has revitalized NATO and the United Nations. The biggest unknowns are the threats of nuclear power plant leakage and nuclear weapons. Putin has approximately 7,000 tactical and strategic nuclear weapons in various stages of readiness. He has shown himself desperate enough to attack a nuclear power plant.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has begged someone to play the role of Brutus or one of Hitler’s entourage who tried to assassinate him. It is a scary time. The world will never be the same.
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John Tepper Marlin is an economist and longtime “Guestwords” contributor who lives in Springs.