As an unusually dry fall season persists statewide, the chief of the Amagansett Fire Department took a three-hour walk with New York State Parks Department officials on Napeague last week to strategize on a new fire safety plan for the area.
With thousands of dead trees resulting from the southern pine beetle infestation, Napeague State Park is one of the South Fork areas most susceptible to brush fire, so the plan, which will include trails for firetrucks and brush clearance, has long been a goal of Chris Beckert, the department chief.
In the past, Chief Beckert had difficulty getting guidance from the state, but “our voices are being heard now,” he said. “It’s a step in the right direction.” Right now, he added, “it’s a hazard,” and it will continue to be so for the next few years as the plan moves forward.
This comes in the midst of a season-long drought. The National Integrated Drought Information System lists October 2024 as Suffolk County’s second driest October in the 130 years it has been keeping records. (Data for November is not yet available online.)
Last month, the county had only .23 inches of rainfall, just off the record low for October precipitation, which occurred in 1963, when the count there was only .22 inches of rain. This September and October combined were the driest on record.
The United States Drought Monitor classifies 99.3 percent of Suffolk County as being in a “severe drought” on Thursday. Earlier in the week it was in "moderate drought," which means there will likely be damage to crops and pasture, “developing or imminent” water shortages, and some voluntary water use restrictions. New York City, Westchester County, and Orange County — the site of recent wildfires — are all in a “severe drought.”
Despite the lack of rain, Ty Fuller, the lead hydrogeologist at the Suffolk County Water Authority, said the local groundwater levels are still “relatively normal.”
“You would expect after this prolonged period of rainfall lacking, that you would see more of an impact, but not on Long Island just yet,” Mr. Fuller said, adding that only one or two observation wells on the south shore had detections below standard levels.
There are two reasons that could account for the discrepancy, he said. First, it could be that the effects haven’t yet been reflected in the data, and second, it could be because the county got lots of rain earlier in the year, compensating for the lack of it more recently.
There were 8.85 inches of rain in March, the highest for that month since 2010, according to the National Integrated Drought Information system. And there was more precipitation in January than in any January since 1999. (Other early-year months show average to above average precipitation levels.)
Typically, October through November is considered a recharge period. Since plants aren’t growing, there’s less evapotranspiration, and thus, more water in the ground. This year’s dry weather is “extremely unusual,” Mr. Fuller said.
Earlier this month, Gov. Kathy Hochul issued a drought watch in 15 counties, but it did not include Nassau or Suffolk. On Monday, however, the governor moved the drought watch to a drought warning in those counties and made the drought watch statewide.
“I would say the concern would probably be the longer term,” Mr. Fuller added. “You don’t want an extended drought during critical recharge periods because this is the period where the aquifer is being replenished.”
The effects will be seen first in the lakes and streams, he added, as they will likely be depleted with the lack of rainfall. If that happens, the water authority would then be more “aggressive” in its conservation efforts.
“Conversation is something that people should think about all year round, regardless of whether you’re in a drought or not,” Mr. Fuller said, suggesting things like taking short showers, turning off faucets, and washing more clothes at once.
For some, the Orange County fires — and Chief Beckert’s efforts on Napeague — recall the Westhampton wildfires in 1995, when rainfall that August reached a similar near low point for that time of year: .82 inches.
Bob Panko, a fire management specialist at the Central Pine Barrens Commission, pointed to the Keetch-Byram Drought Index to better explain droughts.
The index measures moisture found in the ground by utilizing a scale from 0 to 800. When the index is at 0, there is no moisture deficit, i.e., there is no drought. A value of 800 indicates maximum drought — a “desert-like condition” — and a greater chance of wildfire.
The values are measured by how much of the ground beneath the surface is dry. Each increment of 100 equates to one inch of dryness. When the index is at 200, for instance, that means there are two inches of dryness beneath the ground.
During the winter, the index typically resets to zero, as there is plenty of moisture retained in the ground. That’s the “recharge period” that Mr. Fuller described. As spring changes to summer and the heat picks up, the index begins to climb, usually by several figures per day. When it rains, it again drops.
This year, Mr. Panko said, the index was sitting between 10 and 50 during March and April. By the end of May, it had risen to 200. For much of the summer, it sat between 200 and 400. For reference, in August 1995, when wildfire struck locally, the index was at about 700.
During the fall, the number typically undergoes a steady decrease, Mr. Panko said, usually sitting at zero by Thanksgiving. This year, the number has instead climbed, sitting at around 520 last week, according to the Central Pine Barrens Commission remote automated weather station — a “weather robot” — located in Eastport. (The weather robot was acquired in the late 1990s because of the 1995 fires, Mr. Panko added.)
Mr. Panko retired two years ago and now works only part time. While he didn’t have the data in front of him, he said, “To my recollection, we have never seen the Keetch-Byram Drought Index in the 500s as we approach Thanksgiving, so this is a pretty unprecedented condition.”
“Wildfire is a matter of alignment of forces,” he added. “Fires almost always want to burn, unless it’s really wet or whatever, but those days when you have really big fires, that’s when all these conditions are in alignment.”
One factor in that is the temperature of fuel, such as leaves, branches, and brush. As fuel gets hotter, it is more likely to combust. In the short days of late fall and winter, there is less time for the sun to heat fuel on the ground and cause a fire, which is the main “favorable condition” now, in spite of the drought.
Online, the Central Pine Barrens maintains a daily fire danger warning for Suffolk County, not to predict the probability of a fire but instead the behavior of one, should it happen. Over the summer, the daily fire danger warning for Suffolk County remained at “low.” On Oct. 14, it was bumped up to “moderate.” It bounced between “moderate” and “high” for the next month or so. On Friday, it was bumped up to “very high” and then dipped to just “high” over the weekend.
At a “moderate” rating, fires can start accidentally, but they are unlikely to become serious. A “very high” rating, on the other hand, means that fires can start easily, spread rapidly after ignition, increase quickly in intensity, and become difficult to control, the website says.
The weather forecast showed an 85 percent chance of rain today, and if that holds true, it comes right on time.
